Carson City, Nevada – New long-range federal climate guidance suggests February 2026 may bring near-normal winter precipitation across Nevada, with equal chances of rain and snow rather than a dominant winter weather signal.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Nevada is currently placed in an “equal chances” category for February precipitation type. This designation indicates no statistically significant signal favoring either above-normal snowfall or below-normal winter precipitation compared to long-term February averages.
Equal chances outlooks reflect uncertainty in storm track placement and temperature variability. For Nevada, this suggests February 2026 could feature a mix of snow-producing systems, lighter events, and occasional rain or mixed precipitation depending on elevation and storm strength.
Higher elevations, including the Sierra Nevada and mountain ranges of central and northern Nevada, may still see accumulating snow during stronger Pacific systems. Lower-elevation valleys, including areas near Reno, Carson City, and Las Vegas, are more sensitive to marginal temperature setups where precipitation type can shift quickly.
Temperature outlooks for February indicate near-normal conditions across much of the Great Basin. This temperature profile supports fluctuating winter conditions rather than prolonged cold, increasing uncertainty in precipitation type from system to system.
Neighboring regions including California, Oregon, Idaho, Utah, and Arizona also show neutral precipitation signals, reinforcing uncertainty in how consistently winter patterns will favor snow versus rain across the interior West.
Commuters, mountain travelers, freight operators, and tourism-dependent communities across Nevada are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts as February approaches, when shorter-range outlooks will better clarify storm timing, precipitation type, and potential travel impacts.
