LAS VEGAS — A new forecast from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation raises concerns about rapidly declining water levels in Lake Mead.
Lake Mead is Southern Nevada’s largest water source, and the latest data shows that the water level is expected to drop to record lows in the coming years, straining the city’s water supply.
According to the bureau’s 5-year probabilistic projections , lake water levels are likely to drop 1,038 feet by the end of June 2027. This is two feet lower than the record reached in July 2022. In a worst-case scenario, levels could drop further to 1,026 feet.
Lake Mead is already under a Tier 1 shortage, the least severe designation, which reduces Nevada’s share of Colorado River water by 21,000 acre-feet annually. Years of drought and rising demand across the Southwest have accelerated the decline, while heavy agricultural use makes recovery harder.
Currently, the provides 90% of Las Vegas’ water supply. If levels drop too low for water to flow over the dam, the consequences for the city and the agricultural industry could be dire.
Bronson Mack, the outreach manager for the Southern Nevada Water Authority (SNWA), said the water levels in Lake Mead will depend largely on sufficient snowfall and soil conditions in the Upper Colorado River Basin.
“Water conservation continues to be critical throughout the Colorado River Basin, and the Bureau of Reclamation’s most recent 24-month study further emphasizes that,” Mack said.
Meanwhile, Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming are in deadlocked negotiations over how the river and reservoirs will be managed. Current guidelines expire at the end of 2026, leaving water facing uncertainty and potential restrictions.
