Charleston, WV – As colder weather nears, West Virginians are asking: will the mountains get buried in snow this winter, or will the state see a quieter season? The National Weather Service’s (NWS) preliminary outlook for Winter 2025–26 shows equal chances of above, below, or near-normal snowfall and temperatures across the Mountain State.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s September 25 report, a weak La Niña is expected this fall before shifting back to ENSO-neutral during winter. That transition creates high uncertainty for long-range forecasts.
“Predictability is very low right now,” forecasters explained, noting that short-term patterns like the Arctic Oscillation can trigger sudden cold snaps and storm development across Appalachia.
What It Means for West Virginia
West Virginia’s varied terrain often makes winter especially unpredictable:
- High elevations in the Alleghenies and Potomac Highlands: More likely to see snow pileups when moisture-rich storms cross the mountains.
- Charleston and central valleys: Typically face a mix of snow and ice, with freezing rain often causing bigger problems than snow totals.
- Eastern Panhandle and northern tier: Vulnerable to mid-Atlantic storm systems and nor’easters that can track inland, dropping heavy snow—or just as easily bring a slushy rain-snow mix.
Past ENSO-neutral winters have produced several historic Appalachian snowstorms, proving that a lack of a strong signal does not reduce the risk of major events.
Preparing for the Season
The bottom line: West Virginia faces a 50/50 snow risk heading into Winter 2025–26. Residents should prepare not only for potentially heavy snowfalls in the mountains but also for dangerous ice storms in valleys and lower elevations.
Meteorologists also warn that a warmer-than-average fall could flip quickly into a stormy December, catching drivers and communities off guard.
The official NOAA winter outlook will be released October 16, which may give clearer direction on how storm tracks could impact West Virginia this season.
