Billings, Montana – Montana is expected to shift into a warmer and more unsettled weather pattern between July 23 and July 27, with above-normal temperatures expanding across much of the state while periodic rounds of showers and thunderstorms develop. The combination of building summer heat and increasing atmospheric moisture could bring localized heavy rainfall, gusty winds and frequent lightning, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, in its 6-10 Day Outlook issued July 17, Montana is favored to experience above-normal temperatures during the July 23-27 period. The state also falls within an area favoring above-normal precipitation, signaling a greater likelihood of showers and thunderstorms than is typical for late July.
In Billings, afternoon temperatures are expected to climb above seasonal averages as warmer air spreads across the northern Rockies. Heat will build through the day before scattered thunderstorms develop during the late afternoon and evening. Some storms may produce brief heavy rainfall, gusty winds and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning, creating rapidly changing conditions for motorists and those spending time outdoors.
Across western Montana, Missoula is also expected to experience warmer-than-average temperatures with daily opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Mountain terrain could enhance thunderstorm development during the afternoon, leading to locally heavy downpours and brief reductions in visibility. Recreation areas, hiking trails and campgrounds may experience rapidly changing weather, with lightning becoming a concern well before rain begins.
The warmer and wetter pattern is expected to extend across the Treasure State, including Great Falls, Bozeman, Helena, Butte, Kalispell, Havre, Miles City and Glendive. Agricultural areas may benefit from additional moisture, although localized heavy rainfall could create isolated flooding in low-lying locations. Stronger thunderstorms may also produce small hail and locally gusty winds.
Although the Climate Prediction Center outlook does not pinpoint the exact timing or location of individual thunderstorms, confidence continues to increase that Montana will remain in a warmer-than-normal and wetter-than-normal pattern through July 27. Residents should stay aware of changing weather conditions, remain hydrated during the afternoon heat, and monitor National Weather Service forecasts for updated thunderstorm, severe weather and localized flood advisories.
