Helena, Montana – New long-range federal climate guidance suggests February 2026 could bring significantly above-normal snowfall across all of Montana, with probabilities increased by approximately 60 to 70 percent compared to typical February levels.
According to outlook guidance from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the entire state of Montana is positioned within a high-confidence corridor of enhanced snowfall potential across the northern Rockies and northern Plains. This represents one of the strongest snowfall signals nationwide in the current February outlook.
Both western and eastern Montana are included in the elevated zone. Mountain regions, including the Bitterroots, Rockies, and ranges along the Continental Divide, may see frequent accumulating snow events, while eastern plains could experience repeated winter storms producing widespread snowfall and blowing snow impacts.
CPC monthly outlooks do not provide specific storm timing or snowfall totals. Instead, they assess how total snowfall during the month compares to long-term climatological averages. A 60–70 percent above-normal probability indicates a strong likelihood that February 2026 snowfall will exceed typical levels across much of the state.
Temperature outlooks for February show near-normal to below-normal conditions across Montana. This temperature profile strongly supports snow rather than rain or mixed precipitation during most systems and increases the potential for sustained snow cover, especially in higher elevations and northern counties.
Neighboring states including Wyoming, Idaho, North Dakota, South Dakota, and western Canada are also included in the above-normal snowfall zone, reinforcing confidence in a large-scale winter pattern rather than isolated events.
Motorists, agricultural operators, energy crews, and freight carriers across Montana are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts as February approaches, when outlooks are refined and confidence increases closer to the season.
