St. Louis, MO — As Christmas approaches and Missourians look ahead to the New Year, the weather pattern setting up across the central United States is signaling something unusual for late December: near-record warmth. Forecast guidance for the December 27 through January 2 period shows Missouri squarely in an area favored for above-normal temperatures, raising the potential for one of the warmest starts to a new year in recent memory.
According to the latest NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlooks, much of Missouri—including the St. Louis metro—has a 50 to 70 percent chance of above-normal temperatures during the final days of 2025. Typical highs in late December average in the upper 30s to near 40, but current projections suggest daytime temperatures could climb into the upper 40s and even low 50s at times, especially around New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day.
This pattern is being driven by a broad, persistent ridge of high pressure dominating the Plains and Mississippi Valley, effectively blocking sustained Arctic air intrusions. While brief cool downs are still possible, prolonged cold appears unlikely during this window. Precipitation chances also look limited, meaning any snowfall would be minimal, with rain more likely if systems move through.
The implications could be noticeable across the state. Reduced heating demand, muddy ground conditions, and delayed winter sports are all possible outcomes of the warmer-than-normal pattern. Overnight refreezing could still pose travel concerns, but widespread winter weather disruptions appear unlikely.
Looking ahead into early January, the warmth may continue. The January 3–16, 2026 outlook maintains a strong signal for above-normal temperatures across Missouri, suggesting that winter cold may remain suppressed through at least the first half of January.
All signs point to Missouri entering 2026 on an unusually mild note, continuing a broader national trend of winter warmth.
