St. Louis, Missouri – A stronger spring signal is taking shape across Missouri heading into early March, with confidence increasing that both temperatures and precipitation trend above seasonal averages during the Feb. 28 through Mar. 13 period.
According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, Missouri carries a 50% to 60% probability of above-normal temperatures in the Week 3-4 outlook. Precipitation probabilities also rise into the 50% to 60% range, signaling a higher likelihood of wetter-than-average conditions statewide.
The warmer and wetter signal spans the Interstate 70 corridor from Kansas City through Columbia to St. Louis, south along Interstate 44 toward Springfield, and east along Interstate 55 toward Cape Girardeau. This broader atmospheric setup favors fewer prolonged Arctic intrusions compared to typical late-February standards.
The elevated precipitation outlook suggests a more active storm track across the central Plains and Mississippi Valley. While long-range guidance does not specify exact storm timing or precipitation type, it does indicate a greater probability of systems moving through Missouri during the two-week window.
Major population centers including Kansas City, St. Louis, Springfield, Columbia and Jefferson City fall within both the warmer and wetter zones. The Week 3-4 outlook reflects large-scale atmospheric trends rather than specific day-to-day conditions.
Additional refinements are expected as the late-February to mid-March timeframe approaches and shorter-range guidance provides greater clarity on individual systems.
