St. Louis, Missouri – New long-range federal climate guidance suggests February 2026 could bring above-normal snowfall across eastern Missouri, increasing the potential for winter weather impacts across the region.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), eastern Missouri is included in a broad corridor of elevated snowfall probabilities extending from the central Plains into the Midwest and Northeast. The outlook points to a higher likelihood of more frequent or longer-duration snow events compared to typical February conditions.
Areas east of central Missouri, including the St. Louis metropolitan area and communities along the Mississippi River, show a stronger signal for increased snowfall potential than western portions of the state. This pattern aligns with favored winter storm tracks that often pass through the Mid-Mississippi Valley during active winter months.
CPC monthly outlooks do not provide specific snowfall totals or storm timing. Instead, they assess how total snowfall during the month may compare to long-term averages. For February 2026, the guidance suggests cumulative snowfall or the number of snow events could exceed normal levels across eastern Missouri.
Temperature outlooks for February indicate near-normal conditions across much of Missouri. In eastern Missouri, this temperature profile supports snow rather than rain or mixed precipitation during many systems, particularly overnight and during stronger cold-air intrusions. Forecasters note that near-average temperatures combined with increased storm frequency often support repeated travel disruptions and short-term snow cover.
Neighboring regions including Illinois, Iowa, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Kentucky are also included in the above-normal snowfall zone, reinforcing confidence in a regional winter pattern rather than isolated systems.
Commuters, students, and freight operators across eastern Missouri are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts as February approaches, when outlooks are refined and confidence increases closer to the season.
