Springfield, MO – Multiple rounds of heavy rain could trigger flash flooding and sharp river rises along the Missouri–Arkansas border beginning March 7, putting low-lying Ozark communities at risk before St. Patrick’s Day.
According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center outlook issued February 27 and valid March 7-13, a broad swath of 60-70% probability for above normal precipitation stretches across the South-Central U.S. A high risk, greater than 60%, for heavy precipitation is centered on portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys from March 7-10, extending into northern Arkansas and southern Missouri.
Forecast guidance indicates weekly rainfall totals could exceed 3 inches in parts of the region, with localized amounts nearing 4 inches. Three-day totals in the highest-risk zones could surpass 2 inches, increasing the threat of flash flooding, especially in hilly terrain and near small creeks.
In Missouri, Springfield, Branson and communities along the James and Current rivers could see rapid water rises. In Arkansas, Little Rock, Fayetteville and areas along the White and Arkansas rivers may face elevated flood concerns as repeated rain bands track across the state.
Major corridors including I-44, U.S. 65, I-40 and I-49 could experience water-covered stretches during heavier downpours. Saturated soils may worsen runoff and increase the risk of low-water crossings becoming impassable.
The 8-14 day temperature outlook for March 7-13 shows a 70-80% probability of above normal temperatures across the region, which could enhance instability and keep the pattern active.
Flooding could remain possible through March 13, with additional advisories and river warnings likely if rainfall totals trend toward the higher end of projections.
