Jackson, Mississippi – Isolated severe thunderstorms could develop Monday across the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley, bringing a risk of large hail and strong wind gusts.
According to the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center, a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms has been issued for southern Arkansas, far northern Louisiana, and parts of Mississippi during the day Monday and into the evening.
Forecasters say a weak upper-level disturbance moving from the southern Plains toward the Tennessee Valley will interact with warm, moisture-rich air across the region. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s combined with steep mid-level lapse rates could allow thunderstorms to intensify if they form.
Atmospheric conditions may support MLCAPE values between 1,000 and 2,000 J/kg, providing sufficient instability for stronger storms. Wind profiles in forecast soundings also indicate effective wind shear above 35 knots, a setup capable of supporting supercell thunderstorms.
The primary hazard with any storms that develop is expected to be large hail, potentially reaching up to 2 inches in diameter, roughly the size of a hen egg. Localized damaging wind gusts are also possible.
Forecasters note that storm coverage may remain limited because large-scale atmospheric lift is expected to stay modest. However, several high-resolution forecast models suggest at least a few storms could form within the warm-advection environment Monday afternoon or evening.
While not expected to be the main threat, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out due to moist low-level conditions and favorable wind curvature near the surface.
Residents across the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi Valley are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts and ensure weather alerts are enabled Monday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.
For college students, commuters, and evening shift workers, storms could briefly disrupt travel during the late-day commute.
This article was produced by a journalist and may include AI-assisted input.
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