Memphis, TN – The National Weather Service in Memphis is monitoring a developing system that could bring severe thunderstorms to parts of Tennessee, Arkansas, and northern Mississippi on Saturday, October 18, 2025.
According to forecasters, the probabilities of key ingredients needed for severe weather—such as instability, wind shear, and moisture—are increasing across the region. Current outlook maps show the highest potential extending from Little Rock, AR through Jonesboro, AR into the Memphis metro area, where probabilities range from 40–50%.
The agency cautions that this forecast remains several days out and could shift as the system develops. Residents across the Mid-South are urged to stay weather-aware and begin monitoring forecasts closely through the week.
If current trends continue, strong storms could bring damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes to portions of eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, and northern Mississippi late Saturday afternoon into the evening.
Meteorologists are expected to refine the outlook and issue updated risk levels by midweek.
