Minneapolis, MN – Rapid snowmelt and fluctuating river levels could become a concern across Minnesota as a surge of milder air pushes into the Upper Midwest before St. Patrick’s Day.
According to NOAA’s 8-14 day outlook issued February 26 and valid March 6-12, there is a 60-70% probability of above normal temperatures stretching from the northern Plains through the Midwest and down toward the Gulf Coast. Minnesota sits within that expanding warm corridor, signaling highs that could trend well above early March averages statewide.
In Minneapolis and St. Paul, where typical early March highs hover in the low to mid-30s, afternoon readings could climb noticeably higher. Rochester and Mankato are also expected to see milder afternoons and warmer overnight lows, limiting hard freezes and accelerating snowpack melt across southern counties.
Farther north, Duluth and communities along the North Shore may experience a slower thaw, but even there, temperatures are favored to run above seasonal norms during the March 6-12 window.
While precipitation probabilities are not as elevated as areas surrounding the Great Lakes to the southeast, any rainfall combined with melting snow could lead to ponding on roads and gradual rises along the Mississippi, Minnesota and St. Croix rivers.
Drivers should watch for standing water and slushy conditions on I-94, I-35 and U.S. 52 during warmer afternoons. Residents in flood-prone areas should monitor local river forecasts as this milder pattern holds through March 12, with additional updates expected as the window approaches.
