Minneapolis, MN – Minnesota is shaping up for a strong chance at a white Christmas this year as new NOAA long-range outlooks point to a colder and wetter pattern developing between December 13–26 — one of the most active winter periods for the Upper Midwest.
According to NOAA, Minnesota sits squarely inside an “Above Normal” precipitation zone that stretches across the northern Plains and Great Lakes. This pattern typically signals frequent storm systems capable of producing widespread snowfall, especially as Arctic air deepens across the region.
Temperature outlooks reinforce that potential. Minnesota is firmly placed in a “Below Normal” temperature corridor for the second half of December, meaning colder-than-average air is expected to settle in statewide. This type of setup is ideal for supporting both steady synoptic snow and bursts of lake-effect or system-enhanced snow across northern Minnesota.
According to NOAA meteorologists, the combination of colder temperatures and increased moisture historically produces some of the strongest white Christmas probabilities in the country. Northern Minnesota, including Duluth, Bemidji, and the Iron Range, already boasts exceptionally high odds, and this year’s outlook further boosts those chances. Central and southern areas — including Minneapolis, St. Paul, Mankato, and Rochester — also see elevated prospects for accumulating snow heading into the holiday.
Forecasters highlight the December 18–24 window as a particularly active storm period. Multiple systems may track through the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, bringing travel impacts to I-94, I-35, and regional highways. Arctic air behind these storms could also intensify snowfall and help maintain snowpack through Christmas Day.
Residents across Minnesota should monitor updated forecasts throughout mid-December as storm timing and snowfall amounts become clearer.
