Minneapolis, MN — As Minnesota approaches the final days of 2025, weather forecasters are increasingly confident that an unusually warm pattern could dominate the Upper Midwest as the calendar flips to 2026. From December 27 through January 2, temperatures across much of the state—especially the Twin Cities—are expected to run well above seasonal averages, raising the possibility of near-record warmth for late December.
According to the latest outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, Minnesota sits squarely in an area favored for above-normal temperatures, with probabilities ranging from 50 to 70 percent. For Minneapolis, where average highs in late December typically sit in the mid-20s, forecasts suggest highs climbing into the mid-30s to low 40s, levels more typical of early March than the heart of winter.
This warmth is being fueled by a persistent upper-level ridge stretching across the central and eastern United States, effectively blocking Arctic air from plunging south. As a result, snow chances around the New Year may be limited, with precipitation more likely to fall as rain or mixed wintry types—especially in southern Minnesota.
The mild conditions could have noticeable impacts. Reduced snow cover, thinner ice on lakes and rivers, and fluctuating freeze-thaw cycles may affect winter recreation, travel, and infrastructure. Energy demand could also trend lower than normal for late December.
Looking ahead, the warmth may not be fleeting. NOAA’s Week 3–4 temperature outlook for January 3–16, 2026, continues to favor above-normal temperatures across Minnesota, suggesting that the state could experience a delayed start to true winter. While brief cold snaps remain possible—as they always are in Minnesota—forecasters see no strong signal for sustained Arctic outbreaks in early January.
Confidence is growing that Minnesota will enter 2026 on a warmer-than-normal note, marking a striking contrast to the deep cold the state is known for this time of year.
