Minneapolis, MN – A spring-like shift in the weather pattern is expected to impact Minnesota during the February 11–17 period, bringing above-normal temperatures with potential statewide implications.
According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the 8–14 day outlook strongly favors warmer-than-normal temperatures across the Upper Midwest, including all of Minnesota. This transition follows recent stretches of winter cold and signals a temporary break from mid-winter conditions.
In the Twin Cities metro, including Minneapolis and St. Paul, average mid-February high temperatures typically range from the low to mid-20s. Forecast guidance suggests daytime highs may frequently climb into the 30s and possibly low 40s during this period. Overnight lows are also expected to moderate, reducing the frequency of subzero temperatures.
Southern Minnesota, including Rochester, Mankato, and Albert Lea, is forecast to trend several degrees above normal, with more consistent afternoon warming. Central Minnesota, including St. Cloud and Brainerd, may also see milder daytime temperatures, though cooler nights will persist.
Across northern Minnesota, including Duluth, the Iron Range, and the Arrowhead region, temperatures are expected to trend above seasonal averages as well. While colder conditions will linger compared to southern areas, daytime warming may still promote gradual snowmelt.
As temperatures rise, existing snowpack across much of the state may begin to thaw. Snowmelt combined with rainfall could increase runoff into rivers, streams, and storm drainage systems. Transportation corridors such as I-94, I-35, I-90, US-52, and Highway 169 are particularly sensitive to ponding and localized flooding during rapid warmups.
The Climate Prediction Center’s precipitation outlook indicates near to above-normal precipitation potential during this timeframe. Rainfall combined with melting snow could contribute to rises on rivers including the Mississippi, Minnesota, Red River of the North, St. Croix, and Zumbro.
Warming temperatures may also weaken ice on lakes and rivers statewide, creating hazardous conditions. The National Weather Service advises residents to avoid frozen waterways as ice conditions deteriorate during thaw periods.
Commuters, students, and outdoor workers may notice more spring-like afternoons, but officials caution that winter hazards can persist overnight and in shaded areas.
Residents across Minnesota are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts, river statements, and local advisories as confidence increases closer to the February 11–17 timeframe.
