Chicago, IL – Residents across the Midwest may see a hot and drier-than-normal start to October, according to the National Weather Service. Forecast maps show much of the region facing above-average temperatures and reduced rainfall during the first two weeks of the month.
According to the NWS Climate Prediction Center, temperatures from October 2–10 are expected to run well above seasonal norms across Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. The outlook shows the strongest heat signal centered over the central and eastern Midwest. While some areas in the Southeast may trend cooler, the Midwest will likely hold onto unseasonable warmth.
Rain chances also appear limited for much of the region. The 6–10 day precipitation outlook highlights below-normal rainfall across Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and into the Northeast, while states farther west, including parts of Missouri and Iowa, could see closer-to-normal precipitation. By the second week of October, the drier trend continues in the central Midwest, with wetter conditions more likely in the Southeast and Pacific Northwest.
The warmer and drier outlook may affect agriculture, outdoor events, and early fall foliage conditions across the Midwest. NWS forecasters caution that short-term dry spells could accelerate leaf drop and stress late-season crops, especially if rain remains limited into mid-October.
