Chicago, IL – A stronger-than-normal winter pattern may set up across the Midwest for the Thanksgiving travel window, as long-range federal outlooks highlight a 40–50% or higher probability of above-normal precipitation across nearly the entire region from November 23 through November 29. Combined with seasonally cold temperatures, this pattern raises the risk for snow, mixed precipitation, and significant travel delays during the holiday’s busiest travel period.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s 8–14 Day Outlook, the Upper Midwest shows the clearest signal for early-season winter weather. Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, the Dakotas, and northern Michigan sit directly beneath the core of the moisture corridor and also fall into the colder sector of the national pattern. This setup enhances the potential for accumulating snow—especially in Minneapolis–St. Paul, Duluth, Green Bay, Madison, Fargo, Sioux Falls, and Marquette.
Farther south, the central Midwest, including Missouri, Kansas, central Illinois, and central Indiana, remains in the 40–50% above-normal zone, meaning these states could see a mix of rain and snow depending on storm timing. Areas such as St. Louis, Kansas City, Peoria, Indianapolis, and Des Moines may experience shifting precipitation types as temperatures fluctuate near the rain–snow line.
The eastern Midwest, including Ohio and lower Michigan, also carries an elevated risk for wet, wintry weather. Cleveland, Toledo, Columbus, Detroit, and Fort Wayne sit in a temperature-sensitive zone where lake-enhancement and overnight cooling could transform cold rain into snow or slush—especially in the latter half of the week.
Thanksgiving week traditionally brings some of the highest travel volume of the year on I-70, I-80, I-90, I-94, and the Chicago hub. Even light snow or mixed precipitation can cause significant slowdown across long-distance corridors, particularly in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.
More specific storm-track and timing information is expected early next week as short-range models begin detecting individual systems that could affect the region.
