Chicago, IL – The Midwest is forecasting above-normal temperatures for the holiday week across Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, and the Dakotas. A milder pattern dominates through Thanksgiving, but residents should prepare for a colder, more winter-like shift as December begins.
According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the 8–14 day temperature outlook for November 22–28, 2025 places nearly the entire Midwest in the above-normal temperature zone. That means milder travel conditions from Chicago to Detroit, Columbus, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Des Moines, St. Louis, and Kansas City.
Warmth extending over such a large area is tied to the ongoing La Niña combined with atmospheric patterns that keep deep Arctic air locked over the western U.S. until the end of November.
But the pattern flips quickly. The week 3–4 outlook (November 29–December 12) shows below-normal temperatures building across much of the Midwest, especially northern and central states.
Early December Temperature Outlook by State
- Illinois (Chicago, Aurora): Turning colder than normal with increased lake-effect potential by early December.
- Ohio (Columbus, Cleveland): Strong signal for colder-than-average days and early-season snow chances north of I-70.
- Michigan (Detroit, Grand Rapids): Below-normal temps favored; heightened lake-effect threat for western Lower Michigan.
- Wisconsin (Milwaukee, Madison): Winter-like pattern emerging with freezing morning lows.
- Minnesota (Minneapolis–St. Paul): Colder-than-normal stretch likely; snow chances increase.
- Iowa (Des Moines): Trend toward colder early December conditions.
- Missouri (St. Louis, Kansas City): Cooler pattern expanding southward with below-normal temps.
- Kansas (Wichita): Early December cooling trend expected.
- Nebraska (Omaha, Lincoln): Below-normal temperatures likely.
- South Dakota (Sioux Falls): Sharper early-season cold favored.
- North Dakota (Fargo): Strongest below-normal signal; winter-like pattern developing early.
Residents across the Midwest are encouraged to take advantage of the mild Thanksgiving window for travel and preparation as winterlike conditions build soon after the holiday.
