Midwest October Outlook: Dry Stretch May Slow Foliage and Raise Fire Risk

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Chicago, Ill. – The Midwest will hold onto an unseasonably warm and mostly dry pattern through mid-October, setting up ideal conditions for fall festivals, football games, and early Halloween decorating. Daytime highs will continue to run several degrees above normal across much of the region, while rainfall remains limited.

According to the National Weather Service, the 8-to-14-day outlook favors above-normal temperatures from Missouri through Michigan, with below-average precipitation likely in many areas. That means longer stretches of sunshine, fewer weather delays, and extended outdoor opportunities.

Cities such as Chicago, Detroit, and St. Louis can expect highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s, conditions more typical of late September than mid-October. While the warm, dry weather is a welcome boost for outdoor activities, it may slow down peak foliage colors and raise brush fire risks in rural counties. Residents are urged to limit outdoor burning where conditions remain dry.

The pattern is expected to persist through October 14, with no major storm systems on the horizon until later in the month.

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