Memphis, TN – The National Weather Service in Memphis confirmed Thursday that a weak La Niña has developed in the Pacific and is expected to last through the 2025–26 winter season. The shift could tilt the odds toward a warmer and somewhat drier winter across much of the Mid-South, while the northern U.S. trends wetter and stormier.
According to the National Weather Service, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are currently cooler than average — the key signal for a La Niña setup. This typically strengthens a blocking high-pressure area over the southern U.S., diverting the jet stream north. That means fewer Arctic blasts for Tennessee and Arkansas but higher odds of dry spells and variable cold snaps through February.
Forecasters say it’s too soon to gauge how strong or long the pattern will last, though past La Niña years have favored reduced snowfall and more 50-degree days across the Memphis metro. The agency recommends residents prepare now for temperature swings, early-season drought potential, and sporadic cold fronts that can still bring brief freezes.
Drivers should monitor local updates from TDOT for fog and frost mornings, especially along I-40 and I-55. Homeowners can save on heating costs by checking insulation early and protecting outdoor pipes during any cold snaps that do occur.
