Memphis, TN – The Mid-South is gearing up for a wet, chilly, and occasionally breezy pattern during the Thanksgiving travel window, as new long-range federal outlooks show a 40–50% or higher chance of above-normal precipitation across the region from November 23 through November 29. With temperatures expected to remain well above freezing for most areas, cold rain is the dominant forecast through the holiday week.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s 8–14 Day Outlook, the Mid-South sits on the southern flank of a storm corridor stretching from Texas through the Ohio Valley. This setup supports repeated waves of rainfall for western Tennessee, northern Mississippi, eastern Arkansas, and western Kentucky, with only a slim chance of a brief wintry mix near the Tennessee–Kentucky border.
In western Tennessee, including Memphis, Bartlett, Collierville, Jackson, and Dyersburg, steady rain is likely through portions of the period. Temperatures in the 40s and low 50s will keep precipitation all liquid, although heavier downpours may slow travel along I-40, I-55, and major state highways.
Across northern Mississippi, including Tupelo, Oxford, Olive Branch, and Hernando, the pattern favors rounds of rain and low clouds. Flood-prone spots may see ponding on roads during heavier bursts.
In eastern Arkansas, including Jonesboro, West Memphis, Blytheville, and the Delta region, cold rain is also expected, with visibility occasionally reduced by fog or heavier showers.
The only area with a non-zero mix risk is the far northern corridor, including northwest Tennessee and far western Kentucky—Paducah, Murray, Union City—where nighttime temperatures may briefly approach freezing. Even there, any mixed precipitation would be short-lived and unlikely to cause widespread impacts.
Thanksgiving week brings major travel volume along I-40, I-55, US-51, and US-61. Wet roads, fog, and pockets of heavy rain may cause delays during peak outbound and return periods.
Forecasters expect storm-by-storm timing details early next week as short-range models begin resolving individual systems crossing the Mid-South.
