Philadelphia, PA – The Mid-Atlantic may face a mixed and unsettled pattern for the Thanksgiving travel window, as new long-range federal outlooks indicate a near-normal precipitation signal, giving much of the region a 50–50 chance at wintry weather between November 23 and November 29. The outcome will largely depend on storm track and the presence of shallow cold air filtering south from the Northeast.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s 8–14 Day Outlook, the Mid-Atlantic sits in a marginal zone where temperatures hover close to the rain–snow line during late November. The result is a geographically split forecast:
Northern Mid-Atlantic (PA, northern NJ, northern WV):
These regions hold the strongest chance for mixed precipitation or brief wet snow. Areas such as Pittsburgh, State College, Allentown, Scranton, and the northern New Jersey highlands often cool quickly at night, allowing for early-season slush on higher elevations and interstates like I-80 and I-81.
Central corridor (southern PA, MD, DC metro, central VA):
Baltimore, Washington, Richmond, and surrounding suburbs sit in the core of the 50–50 zone. Cold rain is most likely, but overnight temperature dips could produce a brief mix west of the I-95 corridor, especially near the Blue Ridge foothills.
Coastal areas (DE beaches, Eastern Maryland, Coastal VA, Outer Banks):
Rehoboth, Ocean City, Norfolk, and the Outer Banks lean toward cold rain, with ocean influence keeping surface temperatures well above freezing. Still, steady rainfall may slow coastal travel during peak holiday departures.
Appalachian & higher terrain (western MD, WV mountains, Blue Ridge):
These areas have the region’s most reliable wintry signal. Even modest systems can produce mountain snow or mixed precipitation along I-68, I-77, and the Blue Ridge Parkway.
Thanksgiving week is one of the heaviest travel periods along I-95, I-81, and the Pennsylvania Turnpike. Rain, fog, and any wet snow could slow both road and air travel across the region.
More precise details are expected early next week as short-range models begin tracking individual storm systems approaching the Mid-Atlantic.
