Ann Arbor, Michigan – A powerful surge of Arctic air is expected to settle across Michigan between Jan. 18 and Jan. 22, bringing a very high likelihood of subzero wind chills as a clipper system reinforces an increasingly dangerous cold pattern across the Great Lakes region.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10 day temperature outlook, Michigan is positioned within an area showing a 90% probability of below-normal temperatures, indicating strong confidence in a prolonged cold outbreak. This pattern is driven by pronounced ridging over the western U.S. and Alaska, allowing a deep Arctic trough to remain locked over the Midwest and Great Lakes.
Daytime high temperatures are expected to remain well below mid-January averages statewide, while overnight lows drop sharply into the single digits or below zero in many areas. Increasing northwest winds behind the clipper system are expected to significantly worsen cold exposure, with wind chill values very likely dropping below zero, especially overnight and during early morning hours. The most severe conditions are expected across northern Michigan and exposed areas near the Great Lakes, though southern sections, including southeast Michigan, will also experience dangerous cold.
Through Jan. 22, precipitation chances remain near normal for this time of year, with no strong signal for widespread snowfall during the core cold window. The Arctic air mass is expected to be relatively dry, limiting snow despite the intensity of the cold.
Looking beyond the immediate cold stretch, forecast guidance indicates a 20% to 40% risk of heavy snow during the Jan. 20–26 timeframe across much of Michigan, extending into northern Ohio, Indiana, and Pennsylvania. While confidence in storm timing remains limited, the cold air in place would support impactful snowfall if systems develop.
For Michigan commuters, students, and outdoor workers, this period presents elevated cold-related safety concerns, including frostbite risk, hazardous wind chills, and increased strain on heating systems. Residents are urged to closely monitor forecast updates and limit prolonged outdoor exposure during the coldest periods.
