Marquette, MI – Michigan’s Upper Peninsula is poised for a classic white Christmas this year, with new NOAA long-range outlooks showing a colder and wetter pattern firmly in place from December 13–26 — a setup that strongly favors multiple rounds of snow across the region.
According to NOAA, the Upper Peninsula sits inside a large “Above Normal” precipitation zone covering the Great Lakes and northern Midwest. This pattern supports frequent storm systems and elevated lake-effect snow potential as cold air flows over the still-open waters of Lake Superior and Lake Michigan.
Temperatures are also trending supportive. The UP is positioned well within a “Below Normal” temperature corridor, meaning colder-than-average air is expected to take hold during the second half of December. This colder pattern is a key ingredient for both maintaining existing snowpack and enhancing lake-effect intensity across Marquette, Houghton, the Keweenaw, Munising, and the central and western UP.
According to NOAA meteorologists, a combination of below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation historically produces some of the highest white Christmas probabilities in the nation — especially in the UP, where many regions already exceed 80–95% climatological chances. This year’s outlook only strengthens those odds further.
Multiple opportunities exist for snowfall, including lake-effect bursts behind passing cold fronts and broader synoptic systems tracking across the Great Lakes. The December 18–24 period is highlighted as particularly active, with forecasters noting that travel along US-41, M-28, and I-75 could be impacted by heavy snow and reduced visibility.
Even without major storm systems, persistent lake-effect snow bands are likely as colder air sweeps across Lake Superior, ensuring widespread snow cover leading into Christmas across nearly the entire Upper Peninsula.
Residents and holiday travelers should plan for ongoing winter conditions and monitor updated local forecasts as mid-December approaches.
