South Bend, IN – The Michiana region may enter a colder and more active pattern during the Thanksgiving travel window, as long-range federal outlooks show a 40–50% or higher chance of above-normal precipitation from November 23 through November 29. With temperatures expected to hover near the rain–snow line, the region faces a notable early-season snow and mixed-precipitation risk, especially during overnight and early-morning travel hours.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s 8–14 Day Outlook, Michiana sits within one of the Midwest’s most moisture-rich corridors heading into the holiday week. With colder Canadian air dipping south at times, the region may experience a rain-to-snow transition with any passing system, followed by lake-enhanced snow if winds shift northwest behind the storms.
The core population centers—including South Bend, Mishawaka, Elkhart, Goshen, Benton Harbor, Niles, and St. Joseph—may see periods of cold rain during the daytime, with temperatures cooling enough at night to produce wet snow or slushy accumulation. Road conditions may vary significantly by time of day, with the highest wintry risk coming during the early-morning and late-evening windows.
The Lake Michigan shoreline holds the strongest potential for lake-effect snow late in the week. LaPorte, New Buffalo, Bridgman, and Stevensville could see bursts of snow or mixed precipitation when post-storm northwest winds organize into bands over the lake.
Inland areas—including Warsaw, Plymouth, and Middlebury—may also see mixed precipitation, though lake influence typically weakens farther from the shoreline.
Travel impacts may develop along I-80/I-90, US-31, and US-20, especially if snow develops during peak outbound and return periods. Even a brief slushy coating can create reduced visibility or slick patches on bridges and elevated surfaces.
Forecasters expect clearer timing and precipitation-type details early next week as short-range models begin isolating the individual systems approaching the Great Lakes region.
