Annapolis, MD – From the mountains of western Maryland to the Chesapeake Bay, residents are bracing for an uncertain winter season. The National Weather Service’s (NWS) preliminary outlook for Winter 2025–26 shows equal chances of above, below, or near-normal snowfall and temperatures across Maryland, leaving storm potential very much in play.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s September 25 report, a weak La Niña is expected this fall before conditions shift back to ENSO-neutral during winter. That transition often creates volatile patterns across the Mid-Atlantic, where storm tracks can quickly swing between heavy snow and plain rain.
“Predictability is very low right now,” forecasters explained, noting that short-term ‘wild card’ shifts like the Arctic Oscillation could bring sudden cold snaps or warmer spells that determine whether Maryland gets snow or rain.
What It Means for Maryland
- Western Maryland (Garrett, Allegany counties): Higher elevations are most likely to see accumulating snow and colder conditions, with potential for upslope events adding to totals.
- Central Maryland (Baltimore, Frederick, Columbia): Storm track placement is key. A nor’easter sliding offshore could bring heavy snow, while a coastal-hugging system often means rain or icy mix.
- Southern Maryland and the Eastern Shore: More vulnerable to rain and coastal flooding, though heavy snow cannot be ruled out if cold air locks in.
ENSO-neutral winters have historically produced some of Maryland’s most disruptive storms, including crippling blizzards and damaging ice events.
Preparing for the Season
The bottom line: Maryland faces a 50/50 winter outlook. Residents should be ready for everything from significant snowfalls in the mountains to ice storms and flooding along the Bay and coastal plain.
With a warmer-than-average fall underway, meteorologists caution that winter weather could arrive suddenly, with December storms creating the first major disruptions.
The official NOAA winter outlook will be released October 16, offering sharper guidance on what Maryland families and commuters should expect this season.
