Baltimore, MD – A surge of unseasonable warmth could spread across Maryland within days, accelerating snowmelt and increasing the risk of standing water on highways ahead of St. Patrick’s Day celebrations statewide.
According to NOAA’s 8-14 day outlook issued February 26 and valid March 6-12, there is an 80-90% probability of above normal temperatures stretching from New England through the Mid-Atlantic and deep into the Southeast. Maryland sits firmly inside that high-confidence zone, signaling highs that could run significantly above early March averages from the mountains of western Maryland to the Chesapeake Bay.
In Baltimore, where typical early March highs reach the upper 40s, afternoon readings could climb well beyond seasonal norms. Annapolis, Rockville and Frederick are also expected to see milder days and warmer overnight lows, limiting refreeze concerns but speeding up the thaw of any remaining snowpack in higher elevations.
The precipitation outlook reinforces an active pattern. NOAA favors above normal rainfall across much of the eastern United States during the March 6-12 window, with the strongest signals centered near the Great Lakes. Maryland remains in a wetter-than-average corridor supportive of repeated rain events moving up the coast.
The combination of elevated temperatures and steady rain could lead to minor urban flooding, especially in low-lying neighborhoods along the Patapsco and Potomac rivers and near major routes such as I-95, I-83 and the Capital Beltway. Residents should clear storm drains and avoid driving through water-covered roads during heavier downpours.
This warm, unsettled pattern is expected to persist through March 12, with additional updates likely as confidence increases heading into mid-March.
