Baltimore, Maryland – New long-range federal climate guidance suggests February 2026 may bring near-normal winter precipitation across the Maryland–DC–Virginia (DMV) region, with equal chances of rain and snow rather than a dominant winter signal.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the DMV region is currently placed in an “equal chances” category for February precipitation type. This designation indicates no statistically significant signal favoring either above-normal snowfall or rain-dominant systems compared to long-term February averages.
Equal chances outlooks reflect uncertainty in storm tracks and temperature patterns. For the DMV, this suggests February 2026 could feature a variable mix of rain, snow, and mixed-precipitation events depending on timing, storm strength, and the availability of cold air.
Interior and higher-elevation areas of Maryland and northern Virginia may still experience accumulating snow during colder systems. Meanwhile, lower elevations and urban corridors—including Baltimore, Washington, D.C., and surrounding suburbs—are more likely to see rain or rain-snow mix during marginal events, especially with coastal storm tracks.
Temperature outlooks for February indicate near-normal conditions across the Mid-Atlantic. This temperature profile supports alternating cold and mild periods, increasing the likelihood that small temperature shifts will determine precipitation type during individual storms.
Surrounding regions, including eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and southern Virginia, also show neutral precipitation signals, reinforcing uncertainty in how consistently winter weather patterns will favor snow versus rain across the region.
Commuters, federal workers, students, and air travelers across the DMV are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts as February approaches, when shorter-range outlooks will provide clearer insight into storm timing and precipitation type.
