Portland, ME – Maine could be in for a warmer-than-normal winter in 2025-26, according to the preliminary outlook from the National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center. While temperatures are expected to trend milder across the state, forecasters caution that storm systems and nor’easters may still bring bouts of snow and ice through the season.
The early guidance reflects weak La Niña conditions developing this fall, with a likely shift to neutral by mid-winter. Historically, La Niña winters in the Northeast tilt warmer in southern New England, but Maine often sits near the dividing line. This year, the signal favors above-normal temperatures statewide, with northern areas still cold enough to sustain snow cover at times.
Meteorologists stress the outlook is preliminary and subject to short-term climate drivers. Patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) can either lock in cold air or keep storms offshore, often determining whether Maine gets rain, snow, or a messy wintry mix.
The early forecast suggests:
- Above-average temperatures statewide. Cities like Portland, Bangor, and Augusta may see more mild days and fewer prolonged Arctic outbreaks. Northern Maine, including Caribou and Presque Isle, will remain colder but still lean warmer than historical averages.
- Mixed precipitation events more likely in southern Maine. Warmer air could turn some storms into rain or sleet along the coast.
- Snow potential remains in the north and mountains. The western mountains and northern tier of the state are still expected to build snowpack during colder storm periods.
Past La Niña and neutral winters in Maine show how variable outcomes can be. Some warm-leaning seasons still brought several nor’easters, while others produced above-normal rain and reduced snow totals along the coast. Even in warmer winters, single storms can create widespread disruptions.
Travel impacts are still a concern. Interstates including I-95 and I-295 may face icy conditions during mixed precipitation events. Coastal storms could also create flooding risks, while inland highways remain vulnerable to snow and drifting.
The official NWS winter forecast will be released October 16, but officials recommend early preparation. Residents are advised to check heating systems, stock up on both fuel and storm supplies, and ensure vehicles are winter-ready. Coastal communities should monitor flood advisories when stronger nor’easters develop.
