New Orleans, LA — As Louisiana heads toward the final days of 2025, forecasters are closely watching a developing weather pattern that could bring near-record warmth to the state as the calendar flips to 2026. Outlooks for the December 27 through January 2 period strongly favor above-normal temperatures, an unusual setup for what is typically one of the cooler stretches of the year.
According to the latest guidance from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Louisiana lies squarely within an area showing a 60 to 70 percent probability of above-average temperatures. In New Orleans, where late-December highs typically average in the lower 60s, daytime temperatures could climb into the upper 60s and low 70s around New Year’s, putting daily records within reach if sunshine dominates.
This pattern is being driven by a broad ridge of high pressure centered over the central United States, limiting the southward push of Arctic air. As a result, sustained cold outbreaks appear unlikely heading into early January. Overnight lows may remain mild as well, reducing the risk of freezes across much of southern Louisiana.
The warmer-than-normal conditions could have noticeable impacts. Energy demand for heating may remain lower than average, while fog could become a concern during the overnight and early morning hours due to warm, humid air lingering near the surface. Winter weather is not expected, with any precipitation falling primarily as rain.
Looking beyond New Year’s Day, the mild pattern shows little sign of breaking down quickly. The January 3–16, 2026 outlook continues to favor above-normal temperatures across Louisiana, suggesting that winter cold may struggle to gain traction through at least the first half of January.
Overall, the forecast points to Louisiana starting 2026 on an unusually warm note, aligning with a broader national trend toward late-December and early-January warmth across much of the country.
