New Orleans, Louisiana – A drier late-winter pattern is expected to take hold across Louisiana heading into early March, increasing the probability that rainfall totals trend below seasonal averages during the Feb. 28 through Mar. 13 timeframe.
According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, much of Louisiana carries a 40% to 50% probability of below-normal precipitation in the Week 3-4 outlook. The drier signal spans the Interstate 20 corridor from Shreveport through Monroe, south along Interstate 49 toward Lafayette, and east-west along Interstate 10 from Lake Charles to Baton Rouge and New Orleans.
This extended-range guidance favors a suppressed storm track across the Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley, limiting the frequency of widespread rain-producing systems compared to late-February norms. While isolated systems remain possible, the broader atmospheric setup suggests fewer organized, soaking rainfall events statewide.
Temperatures during the same period lean near to slightly above average across much of Louisiana, reinforcing a gradual seasonal transition without prolonged cold-driven precipitation episodes.
Communities including New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Lafayette, Lake Charles and Shreveport fall within this drier signal. The Week 3-4 outlook reflects large-scale atmospheric trends rather than specific storm timing or daily rainfall totals.
Additional refinements are expected as the late-February to mid-March window approaches and shorter-range guidance provides greater clarity on any developing systems.
