Little Rock, AR – A strong weather disturbance and an associated cold front will move across Arkansas from Wednesday morning through Friday morning, bringing widespread rainfall across the state, according to the National Weather Service (NWS) Little Rock. Forecasters say most areas can expect 1 to 2 inches of rain, with isolated higher totals reaching 3 to 4 inches in western Arkansas.
According to NWS Little Rock, the latest probabilistic rainfall forecasts show a 40–45% chance of exceeding 3 inches in portions of western Arkansas, including areas near Fort Smith and Danville. The probability of exceeding 4 inches is lower—around 25–30%—but still focused primarily in the western counties. Meanwhile, central Arkansas, including Little Rock, Pine Bluff, Hot Springs, and Conway, shows widespread 50–70% probabilities of surpassing 1 inch of rainfall during the Wednesday through Friday period.
Forecasters note a slight downward trend in overall rainfall probabilities compared to earlier outlooks. Higher-end totals that previously appeared likely to exceed 4 inches are now trending lower, with widespread 2-inch amounts trending closer to 1 inch in updated model data.
Because of ongoing dry conditions across much of Arkansas, the rainfall is expected to be beneficial and should help limit any flood threat. However, isolated pockets of heavier rain in western regions—especially along higher terrain—may lead to localized runoff issues.
Rainfall is expected to begin in northwest Arkansas Wednesday morning and spread eastward through the afternoon and evening as the cold front progresses. Periods of moderate to heavy rain may occur at times, continuing into early Friday.
Residents across Pulaski, Sebastian, Washington, Saline, and Garland counties are encouraged to monitor updates as the system approaches, especially those in flood-prone or low-lying areas.
