Little Rock, AR – A spring-like shift in the weather pattern is expected to impact Arkansas during the February 11–17 period, bringing above-normal temperatures with potential statewide implications.
According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the 8–14 day outlook strongly favors warmer-than-normal temperatures across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley, including all of Arkansas. This transition follows recent winter variability and signals a temporary move toward milder mid-February conditions.
In central Arkansas, including Little Rock and surrounding communities, average mid-February high temperatures typically range from the low to mid-50s. Forecast guidance suggests daytime highs may frequently climb into the upper 50s and low 60s during this period. Overnight lows are also expected to moderate, reducing the risk of freezing temperatures across much of the state.
Across northwest Arkansas, including Fayetteville, Rogers, and Bentonville, temperatures are forecast to trend above normal, though cooler mornings may persist in higher elevations of the Ozarks. Southern and eastern Arkansas, including Pine Bluff, Jonesboro, and the Delta region, may see more consistent warmth, with afternoon highs approaching the mid-60s at times.
As temperatures rise, any lingering snow or ice in northern Arkansas is expected to melt. Snowmelt combined with rainfall could increase runoff into rivers, streams, and drainage systems. Transportation corridors such as I-40, I-30, I-49, I-555, and U.S. Highway 67/167 are particularly sensitive to ponding during rapid warmups.
The Climate Prediction Center’s precipitation outlook indicates near to above-normal precipitation potential during this timeframe. While no specific storm systems are identified, rainfall combined with warming temperatures could lead to rises on rivers including the Arkansas, White, Black, Ouachita, and Red.
Warming conditions may also weaken ice on small ponds and waterways, creating hazards for recreation. The National Weather Service advises residents to avoid unstable ice during thaw periods.
Commuters, students, and outdoor workers may notice more spring-like afternoons statewide, though officials caution that brief cooler mornings and changing conditions remain possible.
Residents across Arkansas are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts, river statements, and local advisories as confidence increases closer to the February 11–17 timeframe.
