Frankfort, KY – Kentuckians may see a snowier and stormier season than usual as the 2025-26 Winter Weather Outlook points to an increased risk of heavy snowfall and disruptive winter storms between December and February.
According to the National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center, weak La Niña conditions are expected to form this fall, transitioning to a neutral pattern later in winter. Historically, La Niña winters often pull colder air masses into the Ohio Valley, while storm tracks increase across the region. For Kentucky, this can mean a higher chance of strong winter systems and above-average snowfall totals.
Meteorologists emphasize that the forecast is preliminary, and the actual outcome depends on short-term atmospheric drivers. Climate patterns such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) can swing conditions quickly—turning mild stretches into weeks of steady snow or changing rain events into significant ice and snowstorms.
Even with those uncertainties, the risk of heavier-than-normal snowfall remains elevated statewide. Northern Kentucky and areas along the Ohio River, including Covington and Louisville, are most likely to experience disruptive storms. Central regions such as Lexington may also see multiple heavy snow events, while southern Kentucky—including Bowling Green and communities closer to Tennessee—could face a greater mix of snow, sleet, and ice.
Historical data supports that warning. Kentucky winters in similar climate setups have produced wide-ranging totals—from modest seasons with under 15 inches of snow to winters with disruptive storms bringing more than 40 inches in northern areas. That variability makes preparation essential for all regions.
Travel impacts could be one of the biggest challenges. Major interstates, including I-64, I-65, I-71, and I-75, often become hazardous during snow and ice events. Snowstorms may trigger lane closures, spinouts, and long delays, especially during January and February when storm activity typically peaks.
The official NWS winter forecast is due October 16, but state officials urge residents to get ready now. Homeowners are advised to service furnaces, stock up on rock salt and shovels, and prepare emergency supplies. Drivers should winterize vehicles and keep blankets, food, and water on hand in case of breakdowns or travel disruptions.
