Louisville, Kentucky – A significant mid-February warm-up is expected across Kentucky, with temperatures forecast to run 10 to 20 degrees above normal from Feb. 16–20, according to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10 day temperature outlook shows a strong signal for above-normal temperatures statewide, including Louisville and Lexington. Probabilities for warmer-than-average conditions exceed 60 percent, indicating a high-confidence shift away from typical winter conditions.
Under normal circumstances, mid-February highs across Kentucky generally range from the upper 30s to mid-40s. During this warm stretch, daytime temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 40s, 50s, and lower 60s, particularly across central and western portions of the state.
This warming trend is part of a broader weather pattern affecting much of the central and eastern United States. Across the Midwest and Mississippi Valley, temperatures are expected to rise into the 50s and 60s, reinforcing what forecasters often describe as a late-winter “spring tease.”
Precipitation outlooks indicate near to slightly above-normal rainfall potential during this period. Combined with warmer temperatures, melting snow in eastern Kentucky and periodic rain could lead to localized ponding, river rises, and minor flooding, especially in low-lying areas and regions with poor drainage.
Forecasters emphasize that this outlook reflects probabilistic climate guidance, not a day-to-day forecast. Colder air can still return later in February, and residents are encouraged to monitor local forecasts for updated details.
For commuters, students, and outdoor workers, the warmer stretch may provide brief relief from winter cold, though rapidly changing conditions remain possible.
