Louisville, KY – Kentucky may see a better-than-normal chance at a white Christmas this year, with new NOAA long-range outlooks showing a colder and wetter weather pattern setting up from December 13–26 — the key holiday travel stretch for the Ohio and Mid-South regions.
According to NOAA, Kentucky falls inside an “Above Normal” precipitation zone that spans the Ohio Valley and eastern United States. This suggests an active storm track capable of sending several systems across the state during the second half of December. Whether these systems produce snow will depend heavily on temperature trends, particularly in central and western Kentucky.
Those temperature trends are leaning favorable. NOAA places most of Kentucky — including Louisville, Lexington, Bowling Green, Owensboro, and Covington — within a “Leaning Below Normal” temperature corridor. This colder-than-average pattern increases the chances that incoming moisture will fall as wintry precipitation rather than rain, especially for areas along and north of I-64.
According to NOAA meteorologists, when increased moisture aligns with colder-than-average air, holiday snow odds rise noticeably across the Ohio Valley. Northern and eastern Kentucky, including the Appalachian foothills and communities near the West Virginia border, traditionally see the strongest Christmas snow potential. This year’s setup also improves chances for central and western Kentucky, where Christmas snow is less common but not impossible in colder Decembers.
Forecasters caution that individual storm systems cannot be predicted yet. However, the December 18–24 stretch is highlighted as potentially active, with multiple systems likely to sweep through the region. Any storm that taps into the colder air mass could bring travel impacts to I-64, I-65, and I-75 just days before Christmas.
Residents planning holiday travel should monitor updated local forecasts beginning mid-December as confidence increases in storm timing and possible snowfall amounts.
