Paducah, KY – Farmers and communities across the Quad State Region are facing worsening drought conditions this week as new federal data shows the spread of severe to extreme drought across Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, and Tennessee.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor update released Thursday, September 25, 2025, parts of western Kentucky and southern Missouri have now degraded into D2 (severe) and D3 (extreme) drought. Portions of Arkansas and Tennessee near the Mississippi River Valley are also experiencing rapidly worsening conditions.
The National Weather Service office in Paducah noted that while some rainfall has occurred in recent days, the official data cutoff was Tuesday morning, meaning those totals were not yet reflected in this week’s map. Officials said the next update should show slight improvements, but added the new rain will “help ease, but not eliminate, the drought conditions.”
Soil moisture deficits remain widespread, drying up streams, stressing livestock, and reducing yields for late-season crops. The USDA reports that conditions are particularly hard on pastures and hay production, forcing some producers to rely on supplemental feed earlier than normal.
Hydrologic data show streams in southern Illinois and western Kentucky running at below-normal flow levels. Fire danger has also increased, with the National Interagency Fire Center reporting heightened wildfire risk across the Mid-South due to dry vegetation.
Looking ahead, the seven-day precipitation forecast shows limited rainfall for much of the region, though parts of Tennessee and Kentucky could see scattered showers. Long-range outlooks suggest continued warm and dry conditions heading into October, keeping drought relief uncertain.
