Louisville, Kentucky – A stronger spring signal is developing across Kentucky heading into early March, with confidence increasing that both temperatures and precipitation trend above seasonal averages during the Feb. 28 through Mar. 13 period.
According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, Kentucky carries a 50% to 60% probability of above-normal temperatures in the Week 3-4 outlook. Precipitation probabilities also rise into the 50% to 60% range, indicating a higher likelihood of wetter-than-average conditions statewide.
The warmer and wetter signal stretches along the Interstate 64 corridor from Louisville to Ashland, south along Interstate 65 toward Bowling Green, and north-south along Interstate 75 through Lexington and London. This broader atmospheric setup favors fewer prolonged Arctic intrusions compared to typical late-February standards.
The elevated precipitation outlook suggests a more active storm track across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. While the long-range guidance does not specify exact storm timing or precipitation type, it does point toward a greater probability of systems crossing Kentucky during the two-week window.
Major population centers including Louisville, Lexington, Bowling Green, Owensboro and Covington fall within both the warmer and wetter zones. The Week 3-4 outlook reflects large-scale atmospheric trends rather than specific day-to-day conditions.
Additional refinements are expected as the late-February to mid-March timeframe approaches and shorter-range guidance provides greater clarity on individual systems.
