Wichita, Kansas – A notable mid-February warm-up is expected across Kansas, with temperatures forecast to run 10 to 20 degrees above normal from Feb. 16–20, according to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10 day temperature outlook shows a strong signal for above-normal temperatures statewide, including Wichita and the Kansas City metro area. Probabilities for warmer-than-average conditions exceed 60 percent, indicating a high-confidence shift away from typical winter weather.
Under normal conditions, mid-February highs across Kansas generally range from the upper 30s to mid-40s, with cooler readings across northern and western sections. During this warm stretch, daytime temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 40s, 50s, and lower 60s, particularly across central, southern, and eastern Kansas. Western portions of the state are also expected to see a noticeable departure from seasonal averages.
This warming trend is part of a broader weather pattern affecting much of the central and eastern United States. Across the Midwest and Mississippi Valley, temperatures are forecast to surge into the 50s and 60s, reinforcing what forecasters often describe as a late-winter “spring tease.”
Precipitation outlooks indicate near to slightly above-normal precipitation across Kansas during this timeframe. Combined with rising temperatures, melting snowpack in northern areas and periodic rainfall could lead to localized ponding, river rises, and minor flooding, especially in low-lying areas and locations with poor drainage.
Forecasters emphasize that this outlook reflects large-scale climate probabilities, not a day-to-day forecast. Colder air and wintry conditions can still return later in February, and residents are encouraged to monitor local forecasts for updated details.
For commuters, students, and agricultural workers, the warmer stretch may provide brief relief from winter cold, though rapidly changing Plains weather remains possible.
