Des Moines, IA — As Iowans prepare for the final stretch of 2025, weather patterns more typical of early spring than late December are shaping up across the state. Forecast guidance heading into the December 27 through January 2 window shows a strong signal for above-normal temperatures, raising the possibility of near-record warmth as 2026 gets underway.
The latest outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center place Iowa firmly in a region favored for warmer-than-average conditions, with probabilities of above-normal temperatures in the 50 to 70 percent range. In Des Moines, where average highs in late December usually hover near the upper 20s, daytime temperatures may climb into the upper 30s and low to mid-40s around the New Year.
This warmth is being driven by a broad ridge of high pressure dominating the central United States, effectively limiting Arctic air intrusions. As a result, snow opportunities may be limited, and any precipitation that does fall could come as rain or a rain-snow mix—particularly in central and southern Iowa.
The impacts of this pattern could be noticeable. Reduced snow cover may affect agriculture fields heading into winter dormancy, while freeze-thaw cycles could lead to slick spots on roads during overnight refreezing. Winter recreation, including snowmobiling and ice fishing, may also see delays if mild conditions persist.
Looking beyond New Year’s, the warmth does not appear to fade quickly. The Week 3–4 outlook for January 3–16, 2026, continues to favor above-normal temperatures across Iowa, suggesting that winter cold may struggle to establish itself during the first half of January. While brief cold snaps are still possible, sustained Arctic outbreaks look less likely at this time.
Confidence continues to grow that Iowa will ring in 2026 on an unusually mild note, marking a stark contrast to typical midwinter conditions in the state.
