Des Moines, IA – Will the Hawkeye State see a snow-heavy season or another winter of ice and thaws? The National Weather Service’s (NWS) preliminary outlook for Winter 2025–26 keeps the forecast wide open, showing equal chances of above, below, or near-normal snowfall and temperatures across Iowa.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s September 25 report, a weak La Niña is expected this fall before fading back to ENSO-neutral conditions by winter. That transition limits long-term predictability and increases the role of short-term weather drivers.
“Predictability is very low right now,” forecasters explained, noting that atmospheric patterns such as the Arctic Oscillation could tip the balance toward blizzard outbreaks—or milder stretches with freezing rain instead of snow.
What It Means for Iowa
- Northern Iowa (Mason City, Sioux City, Decorah): More likely to lock in cold air, raising chances for accumulating snow when Midwest storm systems pass through.
- Central Iowa (Des Moines, Ames, Marshalltown): A true toss-up zone, where slight shifts in storm tracks could mean snow one week and ice the next.
- Southern Iowa (Council Bluffs, Ottumwa, Burlington): Historically more vulnerable to ice storms and rain–snow mixes, though heavy snow events remain possible if Arctic air surges south.
ENSO-neutral winters have often brought volatile swings in Iowa weather, with sudden warm-ups followed by sharp cold snaps capable of fueling disruptive blizzards.
Preparing for the Season
The bottom line: Iowa faces a 50/50 snow-risk outlook heading into Winter 2025–26. While there’s no guarantee of a snow-packed season, the potential for blizzards, ice storms, and travel disruptions remains high.
Meteorologists caution that a warmer-than-average fall could flip abruptly into stormy December weather, catching drivers and communities off guard.
The official NOAA winter outlook will be released October 16, which may offer sharper guidance on how the season could unfold for Iowa.
