RIVERSIDE, Calif. – NOAA’s Winter 2025–2026 outlook, issued Thursday, Oct. 16, points to another warm and dry winter for Southern California’s Inland Empire — signaling minimal rain chances and a mild Christmas season from the valleys to the foothills. The Climate Prediction Center’s maps show above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation across the entire Southwest, consistent with a strengthening La Niña pattern expected to persist through early spring.
According to NOAA meteorologists, La Niña winters typically keep the subtropical jet stream north of California, diverting Pacific storms away from the region. “This setup suggests limited rainfall and continued drought concerns,” forecasters said. That means warm afternoons, cool nights, and more sunshine than usual through February. The exception: a stray coastal storm or mountain snowburst may slip through in January, but significant precipitation looks unlikely.
For the Inland Empire, this pattern means mostly dry holiday travel and little risk of flooding or snow except in higher elevations near Big Bear. Residents along I-10 and I-15 can expect smooth road conditions and clear skies for Christmas travel. However, the persistent dryness raises concern for vegetation stress and early fire danger if offshore winds increase later in winter.
By March and April 2026, temperatures could climb faster than normal, potentially pushing an early start to wildfire season and water-use restrictions. NOAA advises residents to conserve water, clear defensible space around homes, and prepare for a long, dry spring across Southern California.
