Indianapolis, IN — As Hoosiers prepare for the final stretch of the holiday season, long-range forecasts suggest Indiana could be heading into 2026 with an unusually warm start, including the potential for near-record temperatures across much of the state.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the 8–14 day temperature outlook covering December 27 through January 2 strongly favors above-normal temperatures across Indiana, including Indianapolis, Fort Wayne, Evansville, South Bend, and Lafayette. This period typically represents the heart of winter, when highs often struggle to climb out of the 30s.
Instead, forecasters expect daytime highs to run 10 to 15 degrees above average, with some locations possibly approaching daily record values. In Indianapolis, late-December highs normally hover in the upper 30s, but several afternoons during the post-Christmas to New Year’s period could push into the upper 40s or even low 50s, depending on cloud cover and wind direction.
The warmer-than-normal pattern is tied to a broad ridge of high pressure over the eastern United States, allowing mild air to dominate while keeping Arctic outbreaks locked farther north. As a result, overnight lows may also remain elevated, limiting snow chances and keeping travel conditions relatively quiet during the busy holiday period.
Looking beyond New Year’s Day, NOAA’s Week 3–4 outlook for January 3–16, 2026 continues to signal above-average temperatures for much of Indiana, especially central and southern portions of the state. While brief cold snaps remain possible, the overall pattern suggests winter may struggle to fully assert itself early in the new year.
The extended warmth could affect energy usage, winter recreation, and agriculture, and may delay sustained snow cover across the state. Forecasters emphasize that conditions can still change quickly, but for now, Indiana appears poised for a mild and potentially record-challenging start to 2026.
