Indianapolis, Indiana – New long-range federal climate guidance suggests February 2026 could bring above-normal snowfall across all of Indiana, with probabilities estimated at roughly 50 to 60 percent above typical February levels.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Indiana is positioned within a broad corridor of enhanced snowfall potential stretching from the central Midwest into the Northeast. The guidance points to an increased likelihood of more frequent or longer-lasting snow events throughout the month.
Both northern and southern Indiana are included in the above-normal zone. Northern areas may see additional snowfall enhancement from systems interacting with colder air masses, while central and southern portions of the state could experience more frequent synoptic winter storms capable of producing accumulating snow.
CPC monthly outlooks do not provide specific storm timing or snowfall totals. Instead, they evaluate how total snowfall during the month compares to long-term averages. A 50–60 percent above-normal probability indicates February 2026 is more likely than not to exceed typical snowfall levels statewide.
Temperature outlooks for February show near-normal conditions across Indiana. This temperature profile favors snow rather than rain or mixed precipitation during many winter systems, particularly during overnight periods and stronger cold-air intrusions. Forecasters note that near-average temperatures combined with increased storm frequency often lead to persistent snow cover and recurring travel impacts.
Surrounding states including Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, Kentucky, and Missouri are also included in the above-normal snowfall zone, reinforcing confidence in a large-scale winter pattern rather than isolated events.
Commuters, students, and freight operators across Indiana are encouraged to monitor updated outlooks as February approaches, when forecasts are refined and confidence increases closer to the season.
