Chicago, IL — Residents across Illinois may be ringing in the New Year with springlike temperatures instead of winter cold, as forecast models point to near-record warmth developing statewide between December 27 and January 2, a period that typically ranks among the coldest of the year.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the 8–14 day temperature outlook strongly favors above-normal temperatures across Illinois, including the Chicago metro area, Rockford, Peoria, Springfield, Champaign-Urbana, and Metro East communities near St. Louis. The odds of warmer-than-average conditions range from 60 to 80 percent.
In Chicago, average highs during the final week of December usually hover in the mid-30s. Current guidance suggests daytime highs could surge into the mid-40s to low 50s, with overnight lows also remaining well above freezing. Under the right conditions, daily records for warmth could be approached or broken as 2026 begins.
Meteorologists attribute the pattern to a persistent ridge of high pressure over the eastern U.S., limiting Arctic air intrusions and allowing mild Pacific and Gulf air to dominate the Midwest. Snow chances appear limited during the holiday travel period, though cloudy skies and occasional rain remain possible.
Looking ahead, NOAA’s Week 3–4 outlook covering January 3–16, 2026, continues to lean above normal for temperatures across much of Illinois, suggesting the mild pattern may extend deeper into the new year. While brief cold snaps are still possible, sustained winter conditions may be delayed.
The extended warmth could affect energy demand, winter recreation, agriculture, and pest activity, while also reducing snow and ice impacts on roadways. Forecasters caution that patterns can still shift, but confidence is growing that Illinois will start 2026 warmer than usual.
