Chicago, Illinois – New long-range federal climate guidance suggests February 2026 could bring above-normal snowfall across Illinois, with the highest probabilities centered on Chicago, eastern Illinois, and extending into south-central parts of the state.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), eastern Illinois—including the Chicago metro area—falls within a higher-probability snowfall zone, with chances estimated near 50 to 60 percent above normal for February. This elevated risk extends southward into portions of east-central and south-central Illinois.
The remainder of Illinois is also projected to see above-normal snowfall potential, though at slightly lower probabilities. Much of central and western Illinois falls into a 40 to 50 percent above-normal range, indicating a continued likelihood of snowfall exceeding typical February averages, but with less intensity than eastern sections of the state.
CPC monthly outlooks do not provide specific snowfall totals or storm timing. Instead, they assess how overall snowfall for the month compares to long-term climatological averages. For Illinois, the guidance suggests February 2026 may feature more frequent snow events or higher cumulative snowfall, particularly in areas closer to Lake Michigan and along typical Midwest storm tracks.
Temperature outlooks for February show near-normal conditions across most of Illinois. This temperature profile supports snow rather than rain or mixed precipitation during many winter systems, especially during overnight periods and stronger cold-air intrusions. Forecasters note that normal temperatures combined with increased storm frequency often lead to persistent snow cover and repeated travel disruptions.
Neighboring states including Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Missouri, and Wisconsin are also included in the above-normal snowfall zone, reinforcing confidence in a broader regional winter pattern rather than isolated systems.
Commuters, students, and freight operators across Illinois—especially in the Chicago metro area—are encouraged to monitor updated outlooks as February approaches, when forecasts are refined and confidence increases closer to the season.
