Kansas City, MO – The Heartland is projecting a warmer-than-normal holiday week across Missouri, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa and Arkansas before a colder early December pattern develops across much of the central United States.
According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the 8–14 day temperature outlook for November 22–28, 2025 shows the entire Heartland firmly in the above-normal temperature zone. Residents from Kansas City to Oklahoma City, Wichita, Des Moines, Lincoln, Little Rock, and other regional hubs can expect a mild Thanksgiving stretch with highs running several degrees above late-November averages.
Forecasters say the warmth is tied to the ongoing La Niña, which continues to direct colder air into the western U.S. while the central and eastern states stay milder through the holiday.
But the warm spell won’t last. The week 3–4 outlook (November 29–December 12) shows below-normal temperatures spreading across the Heartland, especially into Missouri, Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska as a colder pattern pushes south and east.
Early December Temperature Outlook by State
- Missouri (Kansas City, St. Louis): Stronger lean toward colder-than-normal temps; early-season freezes likely.
- Oklahoma (Oklahoma City, Tulsa): Cooling trend strengthens early December with below-normal daytime highs.
- Kansas (Wichita, Overland Park): Colder-than-normal setup likely with increased frost potential.
- Iowa (Des Moines, Cedar Rapids): Early December cold favored; winter-like mornings expected.
- Nebraska (Omaha, Lincoln): Below-normal temperatures with an increased chance of early-season snow.
- Arkansas (Little Rock, Fayetteville): Warm Thanksgiving gives way to near- to slightly-below-normal early December temps.
Thanksgiving travel across the Heartland—including I-35, I-70, I-44, U.S. 75 and regional farm routes—should benefit from the mild conditions, but residents should prepare now for a colder and more winter-like start to December.
