Houston, TX – The Gulf states are forecasting a warmer-than-normal holiday week across Texas, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama before a cooling trend settles in as December gets underway.
According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the 8–14 day temperature outlook for November 22–28, 2025 places the entire Gulf Coast in the above-normal temperature zone. Residents from Houston to Miami, New Orleans, Mobile, Biloxi, Tampa and Montgomery can expect a warm Thanksgiving stretch, with highs trending several degrees above typical late-November averages.
The warm pattern is driven by the ongoing La Niña, which continues to funnel colder air into the western U.S. while keeping much of the South and Gulf Coast mild and stable through Thanksgiving week.
However, NOAA’s longer-range projection signals a shift. The week 3–4 outlook (November 29–December 12) shows a transition toward near- to slightly below-normal temperatures across portions of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, with Florida trending closer to near-normal as December begins.
Early December Temperature Outlook by State
- Texas (Houston, Dallas, San Antonio): Leaning cooler-than-normal for early December, especially north and east of I-10.
- Florida (Miami, Orlando, Jacksonville): Near-normal temps; modest cooling but still warmer than other Gulf states.
- Louisiana (New Orleans, Baton Rouge): Early December trending slightly below normal with increased morning chill.
- Mississippi (Jackson, Gulfport): Warm Thanksgiving gives way to cooler, more seasonal temps next month.
- Alabama (Mobile, Birmingham): Turning cooler after Nov. 29; frost possible in northern counties.
Thanksgiving travel across I-10, I-20, U.S. 98 and coastal routes is expected to be smooth thanks to mild temperatures, but residents should expect a more seasonable and occasionally colder pattern heading into early December.
