NEW ORLEANS, La. – NOAA’s Winter 2025–2026 outlook, released Thursday, Oct. 16, suggests a warm, mostly dry season across the Gulf Coast — meaning this Christmas may feel more like spring than winter for much of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida’s Panhandle. The Climate Prediction Center’s guidance highlights above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation across the southern tier of the U.S., a signature of La Niña winters.
According to NOAA meteorologists, the subtropical jet stream is expected to stay north this season, keeping the Gulf Coast under high pressure and limited storm activity. “This setup points to a quieter, warmer winter overall,” forecasters said. While a few brief cold fronts may dip south, sustained chill or widespread frost is unlikely. The result — fewer rain days and minimal winter weather hazards through February 2026.
That doesn’t rule out the occasional cold snap. Forecasters caution that shallow Arctic fronts can still reach the coast, bringing a night or two of frost inland from I-10 and I-20. However, snow or ice impacts remain very rare outside northern Mississippi or Alabama’s higher hills. Instead, fire danger and drought could become the region’s bigger winter concerns if dry conditions persist into March.
By early spring 2026, increasing humidity and stronger frontal systems may trigger thunderstorms and an earlier severe-weather season. Residents are urged to use the mild months ahead for home maintenance and hurricane preparedness before next year’s tropical outlook takes shape.
