Gulf Coast Weather Alert: Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas Face Chance of Tropical Disturbance Forming, Rise to 50% Thursday

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Melbourne, FL – A growing area of low pressure off the Southeast Atlantic coast has raised concerns for tropical development, with meteorologists increasing the probability of formation to 50% on Thursday.

According to the National Weather Service office in Melbourne, the disturbance is expected to drift north and northeastward this weekend, with a medium chance of becoming either a subtropical or tropical depression. The system, labeled Disturbance 1, is being closely monitored by the National Hurricane Center in Miami as it moves across warm waters conducive to storm activity.

Even if the disturbance does not fully develop into a named system, forecasters warn that Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina could still experience heavy rainfall and minor flooding through at least Saturday. The National Weather Service notes that high rain chances and localized downpours could impact coastal and inland areas alike, especially in low-lying and flood-prone zones.

The official outlook map highlights an area off the Southeastern U.S. coast where the storm is most likely to form, though officials emphasize that it is not a forecast cone for track or landfall predictions.

Residents along the Gulf Coast and southeastern shoreline are encouraged to remain weather-aware and check for regular updates through the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center. While no warnings have been issued as of Thursday morning, officials advise that early preparedness is key during this phase of the Atlantic hurricane season.


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